Learning from History | The Rise and Fall of Popular Government
Scipio, when he looked upon the city as it was utterly perishing in the last throes of its complete destruction, is said to have shed tears and wept openly for his enemies. After being wrapped in thought for long, and realizing that all cities, nations, and authorities must, like men, meet their doom; that this happened to Ilium, once a prosperous city, to the empires of Assyria, Media, and Persia, the greatest of their time, and to Macedonia itself, the brilliance of which was so recent, either deliberately or the verses escaping him, he said: "A day will come when sacred Troy shall perish / And Priam and his people shall be slain." And when Polybius speaking with freedom to him, for he was his teacher, asked him what he meant by the words, they say that without any attempt at concealment he named his own country, for which he feared when he reflected on the fate of all things human. Polybius actually heard him and recalls it in his history.
— Polybius, Histories, Book XXXVIII, Chapter 5 —
These words, recorded by the Greek historian Polybius in his Histories, recall the thoughts of the Roman conqueror Publius Cornelius Scipio Aemilianus during the destruction of Carthage in 146 BC. Polybius was a Greek nobleman taken hostage by the Romans when they conquered his homeland. He served as tutor to the young Scipio and accompanied him on campaign in Macedonia and North Africa, and his chronicles of classical history are useful to historians—despite their many inaccuracies—because they give insight into the minds of leaders whom he met during his time in Rome. The Histories also includes a bit of political theory and what one might call "foreshadowing" based on a concept in Greek philosophy known as anacyclosis, "the cycle of evolution."
Anacyclosis in Theory: The One, the Few, and the Many
Polybius drew on the writings of earlier Greek philosophers such as the great Plato and Aristotle when he developed the idea of anacyclosis. These two great authors distinguished between three types of government: rule by the one, rule by the few, and rule by the many; they also wrote that the foundations of any government was either the good of the many or the good of the one. Thus, when it comes to Greek political theory—which is the foundation of all Western thought when it comes to government—there are six types of regimes in the world. Monarchy is rule by the one for the good of the many; aristocracy is rule by the few for the good of the many; and democracy is rule by the many for the good of the many. Tyranny is rule by the one for the good of the one; oligarchy is rule by the few for the good of the one; and ochlocracy, or "mob rule," is rule by the many for the good of the one.
Polybius looked at the histories of Greece and Rome and believed there was a cycle through which all societies moved which brought about each of these six types of government. A civil society emerged when one great leader arose by promising to protect those nearby from outside threats—whether it be a neighboring tribe, kingdom or empire. This man or woman ruled on the basis of protecting the community, for its good and not their own. However, the descendants of this great leader might not be interested in ruling for the benefit of the people but for their own, which leads to a tyranny. Eventually, the tyrant would be overthrown by a group of men and women, who would set up an aristocracy, "rule by the best men," and return government to its purpose—the protection of the people. Once again, another generation would come who would serve themselves and not the masses, the oligarchs or "rule by a few men." They too would eventually be thrown down. This time, the people would choose to govern themselves in a democracy, where every citizen would have a voice in government and laws would be made for the good of all. But those who did not remember the oligarchs would one day choose to form large groups in society and would make laws to benefit their members at the expense of the general populace. An ochlocracy would be the result. Those who were being oppressed at the hands of the mobs would seek liberation and would look to great men and women from within their ranks. When one arose and triumphed over the mob, the cycle would begin again.
Now, it must be said that Polybius was not an oracle who spoke with wisdom beyond time and space. Not every country will go through anacyclosis in the manner he described, and some have managed to avoid a shift from one form of government to another. However, it is fascinating to examine the history of many nations, past and present, to see how often the process of anacyclosis occurs in almost exactly the manner described by Polybius more than two thousand years ago.
Anacyclosis in Practice: China, Germany, and France
At the dawn of the 20th century, China had been governed for more than two thousand years by a succession of emperors who ruled with absolute authority. Some emperors governed with their subjects' interests at heart while others preferred to increase their own power over that of the people; China thus vacillated between what Polybius would term monarchy and tyranny. In 1912, Sun Yat-Sen overthrew the Qing Dynasty and founded the Republic of China, and he surrounded himself with wise men (Polybius' aristocrats) not chosen by the people but who would put the people's good ahead of their own. On Sun's death, however, the rule of Chiang Kai-Shek soon devolved into a corrupt and repressive oligarchy. The Chinese communists, led by Mao Tse-Tung, claimed to speak for the people in a democracy but, like all Marxists, was interested only in his party's power. When he triumphed in mainland China in 1949, he instituted a barbaric ochlocracy which still reigns from Beijing today.
The nation of Germany, founded in 1871, began as an aristocracy under its Emperor Wilhelm I and his "iron chancellor," Otto von Bismarck. Within a generation, however, Wilhelm II had dismissed Bismarck from office and replaced him with lesser men who caved to the emperor and did his bidding and with military officers who flattered his imperial ambitions and ultimately led Germany into the First World War. The Allied victory and the German Revolution of 1918 swept away the oligarchs in Berlin and replaced them with the Weimar Republic, men of the left who intended to govern in the name of the German people. Special interest groups took control of the new government in Berlin almost immediately, and its policies were more of an ochlocratic nature than a true democracy. As the people suffered from economic privation during the Ruhr Crisis and the Great Depression, they cried out for a great man to deliver them. In 1933, this champion of the people would rise to power, bypass Polybius' monarchic stage, and institute a tyranny beyond anything the German people—or indeed the world—had ever seen.
The Kingdom of France emerged from the ruins of Charlemagne's empire in 987 AD when its nobles chose Hugh Capet to be their king. Like the Chinese, the kingdom's rulers were a mixture of monarchs and tyrants, and by 1789 the people were crying out for more freedom. The French Revolution saw the nation of France jump back and forth across the spectrum of Polybius' anacyclosis grid with a brief democracy under the Constitution of 1791, a brutal ochlocracy during the Reign of Terror in 1792, and then an aristocracy-turned oligarchy with the Directory of 1794. By 1799, the people had grown tired of revolutionary change, and they embraced a hero of the people in the man Napoleon Bonaparte. He was chosen to be First Consul of France in that year and pledged to govern under a written constitution which would protect the people's liberties, but five years later he declared himself emperor, returning France to the rule of the one.
The Dangers of "Revolutionary Moments"
History is filled with uprisings against governments. Some begin among the people while others are led by factions outside the government or elements within the military or political establishment. In the United States, we tend to idealize the American Revolution, and there are groups on both the left and right that have claimed to be following in our Founders' footsteps. It is important to recognize two lessons from the past, especially during revolutionary moments like the one we are in today.
Most revolutions occur because one group in a nation feels left out or oppressed by those in power. This was true in America's two violent revolutionary moments, 1776 and 1860, in the other nations mentioned earlier in this podcast, and in countless other nations throughout history. However, without strong and principled leadership from men and women committed to ideals like liberty and equality before the law, most revolutions devolve into some kind of rule for the good of the one. Amidst the rising tides of populism and racial or economic reckonings, it is important for all Americans of any political ideology to remember this fact: if we are not careful, there are people in our midst who will use revolutionary moments to preach justice but practice oppression.
We must also remember that revolutions are nearly always bloody and violent. To take the two American examples, the glorification of the 1776 revolution in paintings and HBO TV series often fails to include the brutality of a war that cost the lives of almost 5% of the national population—by far the highest percentage in any American conflict. The Civil War was our bloodiest conflict in terms of total lives lost, almost three-quarters of a million people, and while the outcome was certainly positive, those who promote revolution today must remember that the process of political and social change by violent means always means that there will be bodies in the streets from both sides. Peace is always preferable to war, and hopefully those nations like ours who face revolutionary moments today will embrace the former rather than the latter.
Learning from History
Polybius' theory of anacyclosis is an interesting way to look at politics, and the subsequent history of many nations show that, for the most part, his assessment of different methods of governing are correct. But there are some broader lessons which can be drawn from looking at anacyclosis that may apply to our world today.
First, popular movements which claim to speak "for the people" and have their interests at heart are not always what they appear to be—especially on the political left. This is certainly true of the Chinese communists and German national socialists. It is important to examine the ideals which undergird these groups as they march in the streets, chant their slogans, and wave their flags. Do they want true equality before the law, or are they pushing grievances and victimhood? How do they treat those in society who disagree with them? Will they truly rule for the good of everyone, or are they merely an ochlocracy disguised as a democracy who will oppress some people for the benefit of others? Popular movements fill the pages of American history, and many are filling our streets today. History teaches us to look deeper than slogans and warns us that if we fail to examine what they actually propose to do, we might not like what is coming.
Second, champions of the people are not always interested in helping the people once they get into power. This is more true on the political right than on the left. Many great men have come to power with claims of restoring traditional rights or founding ideals, but there have also been tyrants and despots whose hands are stained with blood who have used the same language. This is not meant to draw any comparisons between current and past leaders—it is another warning that we, as free citizens, ought to be careful to go beyond rhetoric and look at policies and plans if these men and women ever come to power.
Finally, and this is true for all sides of the current debate over history's role in contemporary society, we must remember that cycles in history do not always follow the same course. Many people on the right today, especially within populist circles, saw the previous American administration as an oligarchy and view the present one as a champion of the people. On the left, the current administration is an oligarchy and the promise of the next will be a return to true democracy and equality. Without taking sides, we must remember that no matter where a nation finds itself in Polybius' anacyclosis grid, it is always possible to jump to any other position—like the queen in a game of chess. In free countries where we the people have the power to choose our leaders, we must think carefully about the form of government we want and then cast our vote for men and women who can either get us there or, at least, start us on that journey.
